In the Know

Well, we are one week into the 2013 baseball season.  What do we know yet, if anything?

5 Things We KNOW We Know

1.  Yadier Molina is the best catcher in baseball.  Buster Posey is very good, and he’s a monster hitter, but Yadi is the complete package.  It’s a safe bet that he will win the Gold Glove behind the plate and bat .300.

2.  Matt Holliday is batting .182 so far.  And Albert Pujols is only batting .211 for the Angels.  It won’t end up that way.  If there’s anything I’m certain of, it’s that you don’t have to worry about Matt Holliday, or El Hombre.  There is nothing to see here . . . move along . . . these are not the droids you are looking for.

3.  Trevor Rosenthal can throw hard.  And he is here to stay.  If Jason Motte is out for an extended period, Rosie might end up closing out some games.

4.  The 1-5 Pittsburgh Pirates will finish under .500.  Book it.  Every year.  Since 1992.  Sorry, but it’s a safe bet.

5.  And finally, we are certain that the Houston Astros suck.  No really, they are horrible.  Historically bad.  In 6 games, they’ve struck out 75 times . . . that is 12.5 Ks per game.  Seriously.  Brett Wallace, the former Cardinals’ phenom that was traded to Oakland back in the Matt Holliday trade, has 17 at bats AND 13 STRIKEOUTS. 

5 Things We THINK We Know

1.  Adam Wainwright will be a stud.  He might not dominate every game.  He might not win 20 games.  He might not win a Cy Young.  But he might do all three.  He is throwing harder than last year and he’s now 2 years removed from his elbow surgery.  He’s back and he’ll be just fine.

2.  Jaime Garcia seems to be healthy as well.  He passed every spring test and his first start was sound, if not great.  If he’s healthy between the ears, and he’s showing maturity signs there as well, he can be one of the best lefties in the league.

3.  Matt Carpenter is a player.  He transformed himself into a second baseman; and he’s proven he can do almost anything except pitch and catch.  He’s a professional hitter; he battles every pitch and never throws an at-bat away, even against left handers.

4.  The Dodgers will dethrone the Giants in the NL West this year; and the Angels will knock the Rangers (and Athletics) off the top of the AL West.

5.  The Cubs are mathematically eliminated from the NL Central race.  Well, not quite, but I’m sure it’s close.  Any day now.  (Note: Clip and save and recopy this into any year’s season opening blog)

5 Things We HOPE We Know

1.  We hope that injuries don’t become an oft repeated headline of the season for the Cardinals.  David Freese looks like he’ll be back in the lineup for today’s home opener, but we don’t know when Motte will be back in the closer role.  Right now, the Birds have enough depth to ride these early injuries out, but no team can survive repeated hits to their 25 man roster.

2.  Petey the Kid Kozma looks like he belongs.  In spite of his .236 career average over 6 minor league seasons, he has risen above it all and settled in at the major league level.  He just looks comfortable; not at all phased about this whole major league thing.  He’s not going to be a career .350 hitter in the majors, but he looks like he wants to stay, and he looks like he wants to hit.

3.  Shelby Miller has the maturity (now) and the talent to stick.  Both he and the Cardinals hope that he’s thrown his last minor league pitch.  It might be interesting to watch the Rookie of the Year race in the NL this season.  St. Louis might have multiple players on the ballots.

4.  This might be the best bench the Cards have had in awhile.  Once Freese is back in the lineup, either Daniel Descalso or Matt Carpenter will be on the bench and they have both been Mr. Clutch in late innings for the past 2 years.  Shane Robinson can deliver pinch hits against anyone; he has no fear.  Ty Wiggington looked lost this spring, but he started at 3B Sunday and had 3 hits; perhaps he’ll be the right handed threat we need.  And Matt Adams can flat out rake; he could start at first base for a lot of major league teams. 

5.  This team will contend in the NL Central.  Their offense tends to be spastic (see below) and their bullpen as usual is in flux (see below), but they have a good mix of veterans and young talent, and Mike Matheny has them believing in themselves.  They may win the division (I’m predicting they do), or just a wild card, or maybe neither.  But as I said last week, they’ll be there in the end.

5 Things We Hope We DON’T Know

1.  The Cardinals’ feast or famine offense seems to be back.  It’s early of course, but in 3 of their games Dr. Jekyll has cranked out 14, 9, and 6 runs.  And in the other 3 games, Mr. Hyde has been limited to just 0, 1, and 2 runs.  Whiplash.

2.  The Reds are still good.  They’re not going away quietly.  Their starting pitching has been good.  Their bats roughed up Stephen Strasburg on Sunday, and Aroldis Chapman has 2 saves and 7 strikeouts in 4 innings of work. If the Cardinals want to compete in the Central Division, they’re going to have to earn it.  It should be an interesting series at Busch the next 3 days.

3.  Fernando Salas looks beatable this spring.  Opponents are sitting on Joe Kelly’s fastball.  Mitchell Boggs is out of his comfort zone as the temporary closer.  I’m not sure Edward Mujica can duplicate his 7^th inning success from last year.  Rosenthal is great; but overall the bullpen has me very nervous.

4.  Derek Jeter is nearing the end.  His ankle is healing slower than the Yankees hoped.  The pinstripes are old and weak and they miss their captain.  Not a lot of people will lose sleep if the Yankees finish 4^th or 5^th in their division and miss the playoffs.  But if Jeter can’t bounce back and produce at an all star level, it will be baseball’s loss.

5.  The Washington Nationals will win the World Series.  Hope I’m wrong.  They have the best rotation in baseball and a deep lineup.  They’ll beat the Detroit Tigers.